Updated FI monthly soybean oil PDF attached / other graphs and tables below
US biodiesel update – bullish soybean oil.
A decline in alternative feedstocks use, such as restaurant grease, and lower imports of vegetable for industrial use, all for biodiesel production, had a profound impact on US soybean oil for biodiesel production, in large part to changes in consumption amid Covid-19. US production of biodiesel was 147 million gallons in May 2020, 4 million gallons higher than production in April 2020, but below our expectations. There were a total of 1,109 million pounds of feedstocks used to produce biodiesel in May 2020, up from 1.070 billion during April and down from 1.178 billion for May 2019. All feedstock use came in below our expectations. Soybean oil, on the other hand, came in well above our expectations, during May 2020 with 778 million pounds consumed, above 672 million during April 2020 and above 659 million for May 2019. This prompted us to increase our soybean oil for biodiesel use by 100 million pounds to 7.650 billion pounds, 250 million pounds above USDA July of 7.400 billion. Look for USDA to raise their estimate for soybean oil for biodiesel use by 200 million pounds on August 12, and lower food by the same amount. We increased our domestic use for soybean oil by 60 million pounds to 22.300 billion, above USDA’s 21.950 billion estimate. Our 2019-20 soybean oil carryout is now 1.908 billion, below USDA July of 2.020 billion, a 112-million-pound difference.
May use of soybean oil for biodiesel represented 70.2 percent of total feedstock, highest percentage since December 2011. The five-year average for soybean oil as a percent of total feedstock use is 53 percent.
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL 60603
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soyoil-FI.pdf