From: research
Sent: Friday, April 03, 2020 7:10:51 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
To: research
Subject: Daily Market Report – April 3, 2020
The EIA reported a 19 Bcf storage draw yesterday for week ending March 27th. This takes storage levels down to 1986 Bcf (+863 Bcf vs. LY, +292 Bcf vs. the 5 Yr Avg). The number came in lighter than most analysts had expected, which potentially points to some unnoticed demand destruction due to COVID-19 shutting in a good portion of American business. The market is in the midst of a transition period from withdrawals to injections; hence we will be looking for more evidence from the pipeline scrape data and next week’s storage report, which is expected to be the first injection of the year. Our current early view points to a 33 Bcf injection.
This morning natural gas prices are slightly higher with more cooler weather entering the 6-10 day period in the latest 00z weather runs. The ECMWF Ensemble showed an addition 9.3 GWDD spread across the 6-10 and 11-15 day period.
Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91.3 Bcf/d this morning. The past two day we saw a big dip in production which looks to be related to incorrect nomination that usually occur at the beginning of the month. Today’s production level are starting to resume to what we see as more normal levels.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 78.6 Bcf today, -1.38 Bcf lower than yesterday and -1.33 Bcf lower than the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 24.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 24.36Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 8.5 Bcf/d today. This lower number comes after 14th days above 9 Bcf/d. Sabine deliveries dropped to 3.4 Bcf/d this morning.
Mexican exports are 5.7 Bcf/d. Canadian imports dropped to 3.6 Bcf/d.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Apr-3-2020.pdf