From: Terry Reilly
Sent: Thursday, June 21, 2018 8:18:45 AM (UTC-06:00) Central Time (US & Canada)
Subject: FI Morning Grain Comments 06/21/18
PDF attached
- 6-10 day is drier for the southwestern Midwest and central Plains. 11-15 day is drier in the south-central Midwest and northeastern Delta.
- Rain will continue to fall across the Midwest through June 28. The Delta and southeastern states will also receive good rain through late June.
- Greatest rainfall will occur in Kansas, Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and southwestern portions of the Corn Belt.
- In late June through early July, a higher-pressure ridge will return across the middle of the United States, resulting in drier and warmer conditions. June 30-July 4 is when the models are putting the ridge in. Note this ridge is not expected to be strong with all the moisture on the ground, and rain may result when hot air mixes with cooler air.
- Some rain is also still expected in West Texas through early next week.
- The Canada’s Prairies will dry down this week with above normal temperatures.
- North China Plain will additional rain June 20-22 aiding corn and soybeans. 90% of the winter wheat crop had been collected.
· France and Germany will dry down this week.
· Western Australia will see another chance for rain, but won’t occur until early next week.
· Drought will continue in Queensland and northern New South Wales through June 27.
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
SIGNIFICANT CORN AND SOYBEAN BELT PRECIPITATION EVENTS
WEST CORN BELT EAST CORN BELT
-Thu 65% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”
with a few 2.0-4.0”
bands from east-central
and SE S.D. to south
Mn.; N.D. to north
Wisc. driest
Tdy-Fri 90-100% cvg of 0.20-1.30”
and local amts to 2.50”
with a few 2.50-3.50”
bands and lighter rain in
a few areas; Mi. driest
Fri-Sun 15-30% daily cvg of
up to 0.40” and locally
more each day; central
areas driest
Sat-Sun 20-40% daily cvg of up
to 0.50” and local amts
over 1.0” each day;
wettest south
Mon 15% cvg of up to 0.20”
and locally more;
wettest west
Mon-Jun 27 75% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”;
wettest south
Tue-Jun 27 75% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”;
wettest west
Jun 28 25% cvg of up to 0.65”
and locally more
Jun 28-29 10-25% daily cvg of
up to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Jun 29-Jul 1 70% cvg of up to 0.75”
and locally more
Jun 30-Jul 2 75% cvg of up to 0.75”
and locally more
Jul 2-4 15-30% daily cvg of
up to 0.35” and locally
more each day
Jul 3-4 15-30% daily cvg of
up to 0.35” and locally
more each day
U.S. DELTA/SOUTHEAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS
DELTA SOUTHEAST
-Thu 100% cvg of 0.25-1.40”
and local amts to 3.0”;
far north driest
Tdy-Fri 80% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”;
west and north wettest
Fri-Sun 45% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”;
wettest north
Sat-Sun 10-25% daily cvg of
up to 0.60” and locally
more each day
Mon-Jun 27 5-20% daily cvg of up
to 0.25” and locally
more each day
Mon-Tue 65% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”
Jun 27-30 5-20% daily cvg of up
to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Jun 28-30 5-20% daily cvg of up
to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Jul 1-4 10-25% daily cvg of 10-25% daily cvg of
up to 0.30” and locally up to 0.40” and locally
more each day more each day
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR BRAZIL
Thu-Sat 15% cvg of up to 0.60” and local amts to 1.20”;
far south wettest
Sun-Tue 15% cvg of up to 0.75” and local amts to 2.0”;
south Parana and north Santa Catarina wettest
Jun 27-28 15% cvg of up to 0.65” and locally morel;
far south wettest
Jun 29-Jul 1 5-20% daily cvg of up to 0.30” and locally more
each day; wettest NE
Jul 2-4 15% cvg of up to 0.75” and locally more;
wettest south
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR ARGENTINA
Tdy-Fri 5-15% daily cvg of up to 0.25” and locally
more each day; Entre Rios wettest
Sat 25% cvg of up to 0.40” and locally more;
Corrientes wettest
Sun-Tue Up to 15% daily cvg of up to 0.20” and locally
more each day; some days may be dry
Jun 27-28 15% cvg of up to 0.50” and locally more;
wettest NE
Jun 29-Jul 1 20% cvg of up to 0.60” and locally more;
wettest SE
Jul 2-4 Up to 20% daily cvg of up to 0.25” and locally
more each day
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
- USDA weekly crop net-export sales for corn, wheat, soy, cotton, 8:30am
- USDA red meat production data for May, 3pm
- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
- EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
- Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
- Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices
FRIDAY, JUNE 22:
- USDA cold-storage report, cattle-on-feed figures for May, both at 3pm
- FranceAgriMer weekly updates on French crop conditions
- ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1:30pm ET (~6:30pm London)
- CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
SATURDAY, JUNE 23:
- China scheduled to release May commodities trade data (final), including imports of palm oil, cotton, 2:30am ET (2:30pm Beijing)
USDA export sales. All-wheat sales and product shipments were some of the positive numbers this week’s USDA export sales report. Soybean, corn, and meal sales were on the low side. Soybean oil sales were ok.
· USD is higher, WTI crude is lower, and gold lower.
Corn.
- CBOT corn is higher on light technical buying.
- Baltic Dry Index was down 26 points to 1347, or 1.9%.
- US weekly ethanol production increased 11,000 barrels per day to 1.064 million, and stocks declined a large 527,000 barrels to 21.647 million barrels. A Bloomberg survey was looking for a decrease in production and small decrease in stocks.
- RIN prices rallied yesterday after a news headline stated the EPA may propose reallocating waived biofuels volumes to other refiners. We don’t think appointing biofuel volumes to selected refiners will be tolerated, or legal for that matter. Reuters noted a statement could be issued by the EPA as early as Friday. Ethanol RINs rallied 5 cents to 28. Regardless if the recent increase in waivers “cut” the ethanol mandate, say from 15 billion gallons to 13.5 billion, end users will still use 15 billion if blending the biofuel is profitable.
- Look for an announcement on 2019 biofuel policy on Friday or sometime next week.
- China sold 1.418 million tons of corn from state reserves or 35.6 percent of what was offered at an average price of 1518 yuan per ton (233.47/ton). China sold an estimated 46.1 million tons of corn out of reserves since April 12.
- South Korea’s FLC bought 66,000 tons of optional origin corn at $208.99/ton c&f for late November arrival.
- South Korea’s KOCOPIA bought 60,000 tons of US origin corn at $213.55/ton c&f for late October arrival.
- South Korea bought a combined 1.6 million tons of corn so far in June. They are taking advantage of the lower prices.
- Brazil looks to sell corn out of reserves soon.
Soybean complex.
· Mixed trade in the soybean complex. USDA export sales were poor for soybeans. Lower crude oil is pressuring soybean oil. Soybean meal is struggling higher on renewed US export demand.
· Brazil’s National Agriculture Confederation (CNA) on Wednesday said 6.8 million tons of soybeans and soymeal exports were delayed due unresolved truck freight prices between trucker companies and grain handlers. About 60 ships have been impacted by delays and losses are estimated at 135 million reals from fines. Brazil’s high court said truckers and companies will try to reach an agreement on freight prices by next week. (Reuters)
· We heard Sep Brazil soybeans were offered at 200 over this afternoon, up 60 from a week ago. Aug is about 175 bid.
· China September soybean futures decreased 26 yuan per ton or 0.7%, September meal down 18 or 0.6%, China soybean oil up 6 or 0.1% and China September palm up 62 or 1.3%.
· September China cash crush margins were last running at 72 cents, down 3 cents from the previous session, and compares to 36 cents last week and 1 cents higher a year ago.
· Rotterdam vegetable oils were 8-12 euros higher and SA soybean meal when delivered into Rotterdam were 2-16 euros lower, as of early morning CT time.
· Palm oil fell for the fourth day, to a 2-year low. September Malaysian palm was 11 lower and cash unchanged.
· Offshore values were leading the soybean oil about 65 points lower and soybean meal $3.60/short ton lower.
Export Developments
· China plans to auction off 60,000 tons of soybean oil on June 22 using a base price of 5,000 yuan per ton.
· China plans to offer to sell 500,000 tons of soybeans and 50,000 tons of soybean oil from state reserves on June 27. China sold 270,106 tons of soybeans out of reserves so far this season.
- Iran seeks 30,000 tons of sunflower oil on July 10.
- Iran seeks 30,000 tons of palm olein oils on July 10.
- Iran seeks 30,000 tons of soybean oil on August 1.
· Agritel estimated wheat production in Russia at 67.4 million tons, down 21.5 percent from 2017. USDA is at 68.50 million tons. UkrAgroConsult lowered its Russian wheat production to 70 million tons from 74 million, and left exports unchanged at 33 million tons (carry in stocks are high). SovEcon looks for Russia wheat exports to total 37 million tons, down from 40.9 million in 2017-18.
- Russia started selling some wheat out of inventories for export (2009-2013 crop years).
- Bulgaria looks for the 2018 wheat crop to come in at 6.1 million tons, near unchanged from the previous season, and on the larger side for their typical harvest.
· Some of the dry pockets across the US southwestern states will see rain and top soil moisture should improve.
Export Developments.
- The Philippines are in for 220,000 tons of feed wheat for Aug-Oct shipment.
- China sold 3,008 tons of imported wheat out of reserves or less than 0.17% of what was offered at an average price of 2210 yuan per ton ($339.86/ton).
- Japan bought 91,188 tons of milling wheat on June 21. Origins were open to Australia and US. No Canada. Original details of tender below:
- Taiwan seeks 95,350 tons of US wheat on June 26 for Aug/early Sep shipment, depending on origin.
- Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on June 26.
- Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on June 27.
- Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley on June 27.
- Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat on July 2 for Aug 1-Sep 30 shipment. Origins include Russian, Romania and/or Bulgaria.
- Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on July 3.
Rice/Other
- South Korea seeks 102,800 tons of rice for September-February arrival on June 27.
TONNES(M/T) GRAIN TYPE ARRIVAL/PORT
20,000 Brown Short Sept. 15, 2018/Incheon
20,000 Brown Short Sept. 15, 2018/Ulsan
20,000 Brown Short Sept. 15, 2018/Masan
10,000 Brown long Sept. 30, 2018/Mokpo
10,000 Brown long Sept. 30, 2018/Donghae
2,800 Milled Medium Dec. 1-31, 2018/Busan
10,000 Milled Medium Feb. 28, 2019/Busan
10,000 Milled Medium Feb. 28, 2019/Busan
- Iran seeks 50,000 tons of rice from Thailand on July 3.
U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 6/14/2018
|
|
CURRENT MARKETING YEAR |
NEXT MARKETING YEAR |
||||||
|
COMMODITY |
NET SALES |
OUTSTANDING SALES |
WEEKLY EXPORTS |
ACCUMULATED EXPORTS |
NET SALES |
OUTSTANDING SALES |
||
|
CURRENT YEAR |
YEAR |
CURRENT YEAR |
YEAR |
|||||
|
|
THOUSAND METRIC TONS |
|||||||
|
WHEAT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HRW |
107.9 |
952.3 |
2,010.9 |
103.9 |
171.0 |
611.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
SRW |
25.4 |
498.6 |
681.6 |
51.0 |
129.4 |
85.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
HRS |
178.7 |
1,475.9 |
1,740.1 |
79.5 |
192.6 |
390.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
WHITE |
150.9 |
1,224.8 |
1,487.0 |
190.9 |
242.4 |
313.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
DURUM |
-1.2 |
99.8 |
169.3 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
34.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
TOTAL |
461.6 |
4,251.3 |
6,088.9 |
426.9 |
736.9 |
1,436.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
BARLEY |
0.4 |
47.3 |
28.5 |
0.1 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
CORN |
165.9 |
14,231.2 |
9,864.3 |
1,762.9 |
42,171.5 |
45,281.7 |
339.7 |
3,651.0 |
|
SORGHUM |
55.0 |
320.1 |
452.8 |
1.1 |
4,840.0 |
3,976.7 |
0.0 |
38.0 |
|
SOYBEANS |
301.7 |
8,257.8 |
6,787.7 |
992.0 |
48,193.7 |
52,260.9 |
227.6 |
6,881.2 |
|
SOY MEAL |
115.1 |
2,632.3 |
2,261.1 |
210.1 |
8,596.6 |
7,658.9 |
5.0 |
315.2 |
|
SOY OIL |
16.0 |
157.1 |
109.1 |
29.9 |
746.7 |
861.3 |
2.8 |
13.1 |
|
RICE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
L G RGH |
0.6 |
136.3 |
140.3 |
2.1 |
1,093.2 |
1,164.3 |
0.0 |
30.0 |
|
M S RGH |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.0 |
0.0 |
52.7 |
186.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
L G BRN |
0.1 |
2.5 |
10.1 |
0.1 |
14.3 |
15.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
M&S BR |
0.1 |
0.2 |
8.1 |
0.1 |
66.4 |
184.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
L G MLD |
5.7 |
63.2 |
220.7 |
20.3 |
834.6 |
741.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
M S MLD |
2.1 |
117.8 |
82.5 |
13.7 |
495.5 |
735.8 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
|
TOTAL |
8.6 |
320.0 |
470.5 |
36.3 |
2,556.7 |
3,027.9 |
0.0 |
31.3 |
|
COTTON |
|
THOUSAND RUNNING BALES |
||||||
|
UPLAND |
-112.4 |
3,443.8 |
2,013.6 |
312.8 |
12,743.5 |
12,090.8 |
295.4 |
5,117.0 |
|
PIMA |
-0.2 |
105.0 |
78.2 |
7.4 |
528.9 |
547.3 |
46.0 |
144.7 |
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL 60603
W: 312.604.1366
AIM: fi_treilly
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
AMcom062118.pdf